Rough November Could Pinch DraftKings Q4 Results

Gaming Industry Drives $329B in Economic Output

Rough November Could Pinch DraftKings Q4 Results

US sports bettors may have had a strong November according to Benchmark analyst Mike Hickey. Hickey said favorable results for bettors in November may have sapped DraftKings’ hold percentage by 1.5%. If accurate, that reduced hold percentage could weigh on the operator’s fourth quarter revenue by $50 million. It would also weigh on adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) by $35 million. December data is not available yet, but Hickey indicated that DraftKings hold percentage likely normalized in December which means November was likely an anomaly.

DraftKings 2024 outlook, however, remains strong. The gaming company is scheduled to deliver results for the October through December period on February 15th. That will be done after the close of US markets. DraftKings has a knack for lifting top and bottom line forecasts when it delivers quarterly results. That is something analysts and investors will be keeping an eye on over the next month. The Boston based company forecasts a positive 2024 EBITDA of $350 to $450 million on sales of $4.5 to $4.8 billion.

For 2025, the online sportsbook operator said it expects revenue in the mid $5 billion range on adjusted EBITDA of $900 million. They expect those figures to grow to $6.2 billion and $1.4 billion respectively in 2026 and $7.1 billion and $2.1 billion respectively in 2027. Then there’s the stock market in general. After tripling in 2023, it shed 7.5% this week as investors booked profits. This may put some burden on DraftKings to deliver the goods in terms of upper guidance.

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Author: Timothy Morris